Frightening Frankie

How to play Frightening Frankie

Strip away the language of contracts, order books and event trading and Bernard Marantelli has a blunt description of what is happening inside US sports prediction markets. “Kalshi is a sportsbook that’s just not allowed to have an in-house risk team,” says the founder of White Swan Data, one of the specialist firms now making markets on prediction exchanges.

The difference is all about the risk function. A sportsbook employs traders to price bets and manage its exposure. An exchange provides an API through which firms compete to quote prices and supply liquidity.

“Here’s an API. Bernard and 88 other people can market-make all these request-for-quotes (RFQs),” Marantelli says. “Some people might come in and just do esports because they’re esports experts. Others do everything. Some focus on same-game parlays. But it’s a sportsbook.”

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“If someone takes the time to understand what they’re used to playing, what they like, what their history is and take that into consideration, then you can bridge that gap. If operators take that time to understand where players are at, it does make a difference.”

Local operators, meanwhile, have tried to close the gap by strengthening their technology, including working with world-class suppliers.

This can be difficult, however, as Atucha explains some larger platforms entering LatAm will only work with tier 1 operators, rather than helping smaller companies develop. “It’s challenging because first, whatever you would consider a tier 3 or a tier 2 or even a startup in an emerging market like Latin America can eventually become a tier 1 operator,” Atucha suggests.

How to play Frightening Frankie

“It has real market positions already, including a market-leading position in Mozambique and a growing presence in Angola and Tanzania, so we are buying established local relevance rather than starting from zero,” Richards continues.

“That combination of proven profitability, established market share and continuity of management materially reduces the execution risk you would normally associate with re-entering a consumer-facing business.”

But, as Robinson warns, the opportunity to enter Africa doesn’t come without challenges.