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Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

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The group is expected to have an addressable market of up to €34 billion when combining all its available markets, including Portugal, Mexico and Colombia.

Lottomatica’s online and omnichannel capabilities are expected to accelerate Cirsa’s expansion in online gaming.

Lottomatica chairman and CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi noted the combination would create a more diversified business with significant opportunities for growth.

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The explanation, he believes, comes back to the behaviour that inspired Swipe Games in the first place. Crash players may experience a different outcome each time, but visually they repeatedly encounter much the same thing. Social media has conditioned its users to expect something new with every swipe.

“People are not playing it just as a quick crash game,” Yashin says. “They play it more like they are betting. It is a different pattern.”

Creating that constant variety presents an obvious problem. A casino game requires random outcomes, but a library of pre-recorded videos eventually becomes predictable. Once a player recognises a clip, they could know how it ends.