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What is Rogues Draw?
The two companies began collaborating in November 2025. As part of the deal, Polymarket provided data for a dedicated prediction market section on Yahoo Finance. The feature provided market-based probabilities of economic, political, and financial developments alongside Yahoo Finance content.
The Yahoo Finance prediction market section was taken out in April. The companies have now confirmed that the larger deal is also off, as reported by Bloomberg.
Yahoo said Polymarket is still an advertising partner and suggested the two could collaborate on other projects in the future. Polymarket has not provided any public explanation for the end of the data partnership.
How to play Rogues Draw
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
About Rogues Draw
“Looking back over the past two years, the regulation has achieved its primary objective: creating a safer and more transparent market. It has established common standards for all licensed operators, particularly around KYC, AML and responsible gaming, ensuring that customers receive a more consistent experience regardless of the platform they choose.”
Atucha praises the regulation and the regulators themselves for making entry into the market easy, as well as allowing them to be competitive against illegal operators. But the market hasn’t been without its challenges.
A 1% selective consumption tax (ISC) on the value of every online bet has been in force since 1 July 2025, after the original policy was scrapped from proposed regulations in July 2021.
